COVID-19 Blog - 04/08/20

April 8, 2020

As of 4/8/20, there are currently over 1.4 million cases of COVID-19 and more than 83,000 deaths reported in 184 countries around the world. The US continues to lead the world in the total numbers of infections with over 400,000 cases reported and over 13,000 deaths. New York continues to be hardest hit, with over 140,000 cases and 5,400 deaths statewide.

Most states are not collecting data by race and ethnicity, but data from some locations show alarming disparities. In Chicago 52% of COVID-19 cases and 69% of deaths are among Black residents, who make up 30% of the city’s population. Only 14% of Michigan’s population is Black but represent 33% of COVID-19 cases and 41% of deaths in the state. In Louisiana, 70% of the deaths statewide are among black residents who make up 32% of the state’s population. North Carolina, Washington DC, and Milwaukee are also reporting disproportionate infections and death among black residents. In New York, African Americans make up 22% of the population but 28% of deaths, while Latinos make up 29% of the population but 35% of deaths.To date there is no reliable information about what is happening with Asian Americans. It is important that we advocate to our departments of public health to collect and report such data.

In the US, an estimated 90% of the population is under shelter-in-place/stay at home orders. In Europe, the lockdown is in effect. Researchers from Imperial College London constructed a model using the observed number of deaths in 11 European countries to assess whether these public health interventions have worked. The number of deaths averted due to implementation of the interventions was estimated to be 59,000 with a range of 21,000 to 120,000. Public health interventions have worked. However, even now, the re-infection rate (how many people will be infected by one COVID infected person) is well above 1, so COVID-19 will continue to spread if public health interventions are lifted.

One controversy to which we have an answer is whether we should wear masks outside. The answer is yes, as long as it is not diverting needed supplies from the healthcare workers. This is primarily because people infected with COVID19 may not have any symptoms but are shedding the virus.

On the vaccine front, a second vaccine from Inovio is going into phase 1 trial this week. This is to assess safety and antibody response. The Moderna vaccine has been in phase 1 since mid-March. On the treatment front, the results from the first remdesivir randomized controlled clinical trial in China should becoming out within a week or two. There are several trials on hydroxychloroquine that we hope will answer whether that works. There is anecdotal evidence that using plasma from people who recovered from COVID to treat those who are sick may work, and studies are starting.

To finish, I do want to highlight a website that has information about COVID in multiple languages that you can refer your communities to.